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IJID Regions

Elsevier BV

Preprints posted in the last 30 days, ranked by how well they match IJID Regions's content profile, based on 10 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.01% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Does Parental Migration Affect a Child's Immunization Coverage? A Cross-sectional Analytical Study of India

Dhalaria, P.; Kumar, P.; Kapur, S.; Verma, A. K.; Singh, A. K.; Priyadarshini, P.; Singh, K.; Tripathi, B.; Ray, A.

2026-05-20 public and global health 10.64898/2026.05.14.26353222 medRxiv
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Introduction-India's immunization initiatives are among the largest globally, characterized by a substantial birth cohort of 27 million children annually, and have achieved significant progress in increasing coverage through the UIP. However, there are still challenges that persist, and multiple determinants contribute to the existing challenges; parental migration is one of them. Migration has always been a key driver of socio-economic and demographic changes, particularly in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). Specifically, there is a need to better understand the vulnerabilities of immunization among recent migrants. To examine this, the study explores the association between a mother's recent migration and the full immunization coverage of children aged 12-23 months in India. Data & Methods-Our study utilized data from the National Family Health Survey-5 (2019-21). The outcome variable of interest in this study is the receipt of all basic vaccinations (full immunization) for children. The primary predictor variable in this study is the children's migration status. We used a series of multivariate logistic regression models to examine the relationship between full Immunization and recent migration of children, with some data restrictions in the models. Results - The results show a 17% difference in full immunization between migrant and non-migrant children. The odds ratios for children who had recently migrated were lower for full immunization (OR: 0.39, 95% CI: 0.35-0.43) compared to children who had not recently migrated. Even across the household wealth quintile and social groups, the recent migration of children was associated with being less likely to be fully immunized among children 12-23 months. Conclusion- The findings of this study provide significant quantitative evidence that recent migration (less than 3 years) of children is a key factor influencing Immunization coverage and is a predictor of full vaccination among children aged 12-23 months in India. The recent migration was consistently linked to a lower likelihood of full immunization coverage across different household wealth levels and social groups. This study suggests that recently migrated children are a vulnerable subgroup of the population at risk of not receiving all basic vaccinations by their first birthday.

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HIV-HPV Syndemic and Anal Precancerous Lesions Among MSM and Transgender Women in Pakistan: A Biological Continuum in High-Risk Sexual Networks

Ejaz, M.; Ahmed, A.; Rizvi, S. H.; Rizvi, A. A.; Ali, F.; Haroon, A.

2026-06-01 public and global health 10.64898/2026.05.28.26354356 medRxiv
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Background: Sexual and gender minorities (SGM), including men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women, often face stigma, legal constraints, and limited access to sexual and reproductive health services. These conditions restrict prevention and care, increasing vulnerability to HIV and human papillomavirus (HPV) infections. While strong HIV-HPV interaction is documented in high-income settings, evidence from low- and middle-income countries remains limited. This study examines the burden, co-infection dynamics, and progression of HPV infection and anal dysplasia among MSM and transgender women in Pakistan. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted between September 2015 and October 2016 among men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women recruited from sexual health and antiretroviral therapy centers in Karachi. Eligible participants were aged [&ge;]18 years and self-reported anal sex within the past 6 months (N=298). Two anal specimens were collected for HPV DNA detection and genotyping using PCR, and anal squamous intraepithelial lesions (ASIL) were assessed cytologically using the Bethesda classification. Associations were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression algorithms to derive prevalence ratios (PRs). Results: Among participants, 44% (n=133) were living with HIV. Overall HPV prevalence was 65.1%, rising to 87% among HIV-positive individuals compared to 48% among those without HIV ({chi}{superscript 2}p[&le;]0.001). Likewise 28.9% of participants living with HIV were infected with two or more than two types of HPV as compared with 18.8% participants without HIV ({chi}{superscript 2}p[&le;]0.001). HIV infection was strongly associated with HPV acquisition (adjusted PR 2.81, 95% CI 2.16-3.82). Among HPV-positive participants (n=194), 58.8% were co-infected with HIV. High-risk HPV was highly prevalent among those living with HIV (83.2% vs. 35.3% ({chi}{superscript 2}p[&le;]0.001)), with HPV16 as the dominant oncogenic type. Multiple HPV infections were more common among HIV-positive individuals ({chi}{superscript 2}p[&le;]0.001), and HIV seropositivity was 3.43 (95% CI: 2.55-3.51) times higher among those with high-risk HPV. Co-infected participants demonstrated prolonged smoking, longer duration of sex work, high-intensity sex work with limited condom negotiation, and higher prevalence of anal warts (all p<0.05). Anal dysplasia (ASIL) was present in 35% of participants and was higher among HIV-positive individuals (42.4% vs. 28.1%, p<0.001). HIV-HPV co-infection was independently associated with ASIL (adjusted PR 1.75, 95% CI 1.07-2.88), while high-risk HPV further amplified this risk (PR 3.04, 95% CI 1.75-5.26). Conclusion: These findings demonstrate a biological continuum in HIV-positive MSM and transgender women, where HIV increases HPV acquisition, persistence, and multiplicity, accelerating progression to anal dysplasia. This reflects a syndemic shaped by biological interaction and structural vulnerability. Integrating HPV screening and vaccination within HIV services is essential to interrupt progression to cancer in this high-risk population.

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Satellite imagery encodes features predictive of regional mortality and life expectancy

Mitsuyama, Y.; Saito, K.; Kurimoto, S.; Walston, S. L.; Takita, H.; Ueda, D.

2026-05-19 public and global health 10.64898/2026.05.17.26353439 medRxiv
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Background Increasingly accessible satellite imagery provides scalable measures of the built and natural environment relevant to population health. However, whether such imagery can capture subnational variation in mortality and life expectancy remains unclear. We therefore assessed its predictive value for regional mortality and life expectancy across OECD regions. Methods We conducted an ecological, cross-sectional prediction study using 2023 data from OECD Territorial Level 3 (TL3) regions. Annual cloud-masked composites from the Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 collection were processed in the Google Earth Engine, tiled at 224 x 224 pixels, and encoded with the pretrained Prithvi foundation model to derive region-level satellite embeddings. For each outcome, we trained LightGBM regressors for a country-only baseline, a satellite-only model, a combined model (country + satellite), and a final contextual model that additionally included prespecified socioeconomic and environmental covariates. Performance was evaluated using 10-fold outer cross-validation with held-out test folds; R2 was the primary metric. Results The analytic sample comprised 2,414 OECD TL3 regions across 38 countries, for which 939,959 satellite image tiles were processed. In paired bootstrap comparisons, adding satellite features to country indicators improved predictive performance for all outcomes, with incremental R2 ranging from 0.097 to 0.233. The final contextual model achieved R2 values of 0.78 (95% CI, 0.74-0.81) for crude mortality, 0.87 (0.84-0.89) for age-adjusted mortality, 0.86 (0.82-0.88) for infant mortality, and 0.76 (0.69-0.84) for life expectancy. In SHAP analyses, the aggregated satellite image effect consistently ranked among the top predictors across outcomes. Conclusion Satellite imagery captures subnational environmental heterogeneity relevant to regional mortality and life expectancy beyond country identity alone. Earth observation may therefore provide a scalable, complementary data source for characterizing geographic disparities in population health.

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Shifting patterns of importation risk of Bundibugyo Ebola virus disease to Europe under outbreak expansion scenarios

Fanelli, F.; Parino, F.; Poletto, C.; Colizza, V.

2026-06-04 public and global health 10.64898/2026.05.31.26354511 medRxiv
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The 2026 Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has already generated international spread to Uganda, raising concerns about further regional and international dissemination. Using International Air Transport Association origin-destination passenger flows, we assessed relative exposure to Ebola virus disease importation into Europe under six outbreak expansion scenarios reflecting plausible pathways of geographical spread, including cross-border transmission and amplification in highly connected regional capitals. Relative exposure patterns remained largely unchanged under localized transmission in eastern DRC and border-spillover scenarios. Expansion into South Sudan generated a first structural increase in importation pressure to Europe through the connectivity associated with Juba, while hypothetical amplification in Kampala, Kigali, and Kinshasa substantially increased importation pressure and reshaped exposure patterns across Europe. Across all scenarios, France, Italy, and the United Kingdom remained among the most exposed countries. Mobility-informed scenario analyses support preparedness as the geography of the outbreak evolves.

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Determinants, Barriers, and Completion Patterns of Routine Childhood Immunization in Bayelsa State, Nigeria

Promise, V. I.; Raimi, M. O.

2026-05-22 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.05.20.26353707 medRxiv
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Background: Incomplete childhood vaccination undermines individual and herd immunity and increases vulnerability to vaccine-preventable diseases. Understanding local determinants of vaccination adherence is essential for targeted interventions. This study assessed routine immunization completion and dropout patterns among children aged 0-15 months in Bayelsa State, Nigeria. Objectives: To determine vaccination completion rates, identify factors influencing adherence, analyze temporal patterns across immunization milestones, and provide evidence-based recommendations for improving coverage. Methods: A comparative longitudinal study was conducted from March 2023 to July 2024 across three Local Government Areas (LGAs), representing each senatorial district. A total of 369 mother-child pairs (123 per LGA) were enrolled. Data were obtained from health facility immunization registers and supplemented with semi-structured questionnaires. Children were followed through the 6th week, 10th week, 14th week, 9th month, and 15th month immunization visits. Completion rates were analyzed using descriptive statistics and chi-square tests. Ethical approval was obtained from the State Ministry of Health, and informed consent was obtained from all mothers. Results: Completion rates varied across LGAs, with the highest in LGA C (86.2%) and lowest in LGA B (61.0%). Phone-based reminders achieved the highest adherence, outperforming routine and home visit strategies. Progressive attrition was observed along the immunization schedule, with dropout exceeding completion by the 15th month. Principal reasons for non-completion included forgetfulness, travel, and caregiver busyness. Maternal age, education, and occupation significantly influenced adherence, indicating disparities across LGAs. Conclusion: Vaccination adherence is shaped by maternal characteristics and operational strategies. While early-stage coverage is high, attrition increases at later milestones, particularly in LGAs with lower resource engagement. Recommendations: Implement targeted phone-based reminders, milestone-specific outreach, and community engagement programs to reduce dropout, enhance timely completion, and strengthen childhood immunity.

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Predictors of treatment outcomes in adults with drug-sensitive Tuberculosis in Maharashtra, India: A retrospective study

Parthasarathy, R.; Raj, Y.; Majumder, N.; Mitra, M.; Mehra, S.; Rao, R.; Rajan, S.

2026-05-15 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.05.12.26352988 medRxiv
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Background: Tuberculosis (TB) remains the leading infectious cause of death worldwide, with India accounting for nearly one-fourth of global TB cases. Ni-kshay, the countrys digital case-based TB notification platform is rich in data pertaining to the continuum of care of TB patients. This study aims to develop a standardized analytical approach to programmatic data to identify predictors of unfavourable treatment outcomes and mortality among adult drug-sensitive TB patients at the state level for Maharashtra during 2021 and 2022. Methods: Two separate analyses were undertaken comparing treatment success with: (1) unfavourable outcomes (death, treatment failure, loss to follow-up, regimen change, or not evaluated); and (2) mortality. Multivariate logistic regression was used to compute adjusted odds ratios (aOR) for key risk factors, adjusting for age, gender, and weight. Results: The final cohort included 323,124 cases for unfavourable outcome analysis and 315,579 cases for mortality analysis. Increasing age, male gender, lower body weight, known HIV and diabetes comorbidities, tobacco and alcohol consumption, and "unknown" status for behavioural risks and comorbidity status were significantly associated with increased odds of both unfavourable outcomes and mortality. Conclusions: This study highlights the utility of programmatic data in identifying high-risk TB patients and offers a reproducible analytic framework.

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Low Self-Efficacy and Depression Predict Non-Viral Suppression Among Ugandan Women Living with HIV Using the ACTG Adherence Questionnaire

Atuhaire, P.; Nabwana, M.; Etima, J.; Aizire, J.; Taha, T.; Atuyambe, L.; Owora, A.; Nolan, M.; Fowler, M. G.

2026-06-03 hiv aids 10.64898/2026.06.02.26354671 medRxiv
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Background Studies show 53 to 74% of women living with HIV experience postpartum ART adherence challenges. Viral load testing is a delayed indicator, highlighting the need for culturally appropriate screening tools to identify at-risk women early. This study examined the association between non-viral suppression and constructs within the AIDS Clinical Trials Group (ACTG) adherence questionnaire among women in Uganda to inform timely, targeted interventions to improve adherence. Methods The ACTG was adapted, and postpartum participants completed ACASI or Provider-Assisted Interviews (PAIs). Self-efficacy, social support, anxiety, depression, viral load, and clinical factors were analysed using mixed-effects logistic models over a 1-year period. Results Of 166 women, 21 completed ACASI and 145 PAIs. 4.2% (7/166) were not virally suppressed at baseline, and their non-suppression status was consistent throughout one year of follow-up. High self-efficacy scores were associated with 27% lower odds of viral non-suppression (Odds Ratio [OR], 0.73; 95% CI, 0.54, 0.98). High depression scores were associated with 22% higher odds of non-suppression (OR 1.22;95% (1.01,1.49). Other variables, including age, Body Mass Index, duration on ART, marital status, employment, education level, tap water, and travel time from home to clinic, were not associated with viral suppression in the covariate-adjusted analyses. Median self-efficacy and depression scores were 8 (IQR 1,9) and 1.2 (IQR 0,16), respectively. Focused group discussion data showed high acceptability and feasibility of using the ACTG adherence questionnaire in Uganda. Conclusion Lower self-efficacy and higher depression scores on the ACTG adherence questionnaire can help identify Ugandan women at risk of viral non-suppression in HIV programs. Keywords WLHIV, Antiretroviral Therapy, Adherence, Audio Computer Assisted Self Interview, Viral load

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Temporal and climatic drivers of uncomplicated malaria in Ghana: A Region Generalised Additive Model analysis.

Akurugu, E.; Awine, T.; Seidu, B.; Peprah, N. Y.; Mohammed, W.; Boateng, P.; Abiwu, P. H. A. K.; Silal, S. P.

2026-06-09 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.06.06.26355054 medRxiv
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Abstract Background Malaria remains a major public health challenge in Ghana, despite recent reductions in cases due to various interventions. The endemicity of the disease varies across regions, influenced by diverse seasonal and temporal factors that support mosquito proliferation and malaria cases. This study used a Generalised Additive Models to explore the impact of weather conditions on malaria cases in Ghana. Methods Generalised Additive Models were used to examine the nonlinear effects of weather conditions on malaria cases. Monthly aggregated malaria cases from the District Health Information Management System II and average monthly rainfall and temperature data from the Ghana Meteorological Agency were analysed, covering 2012 to 2023. Regional Generalised Additive Models incorporating weather variables were developed, fitted, and validated against observed data using model diagnostics to identify the most suitable model for each region. Results The analysis revealed complex temporal patterns in malaria cases across Ghana, influenced by seasonal and long-term trends. Regions constituting the Coastal and Transitional Forest zones exhibited bimodal peak malaria seasons, while the Guinea Savannah showed a unimodal peak. Significant interactions between rainfall and temperature were identified, particularly in the Eastern region, where higher rainfall combined with temperatures around 27-28 {degrees}C were associated with higher malaria cases, reflecting the complex and region-specific nature of meteorological influences. Conclusions The findings point to the dynamic and heterogeneous nature of malaria caseloads in Ghana, emphasising the need for region-specific control strategies tailored to local climatic conditions. A key recommendation is the systematic integration of meteorological data into the National Malaria Data Repository to enable continuous monitoring of climatic influences and support timely, evidence-based intervention decisions. Future research should incorporate socio-economic factors, intervention coverage data, vector surveillance, and demographic characteristics into mathematical modelling frameworks for a more comprehensive understanding of malaria cases in Ghana.

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Advanced HIV disease and treatment-related adverse drug reactions among people living with HIV receiving antiretroviral therapy in Tanzania: a multicenter cross-sectional study

Mutagonda, R. F.; Kibanga, W. A.; Mikomangwa, W. P.; Kamuhabwa, A. A.

2026-06-02 hiv aids 10.64898/2026.05.30.26354502 medRxiv
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Background: Advanced HIV disease (AHD) remains a major contributor to HIV-related morbidity and mortality despite widespread antiretroviral therapy (ART) access in sub-Saharan Africa. Although treatment-related adverse drug reactions (ADRs) may compromise treatment outcomes, evidence on the relationship between AHD and ADR occurrence remains limited. This study aimed to determine the prevalence and identify factors associated with AHD, characterize treatment-related ADR and assess the association between AHD and ADR occurrence among people living with HIV receiving ART in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Methods: We conducted a multicenter cross-sectional study among 1,513 people living with HIV receiving ART at selected HIV care and treatment clinics in Dar es Salaam, TanzaniaFor this adolescent/adult cohort, AHD was operationally defined as WHO clinical stage III/IV disease and/or baseline CD4 count <200 cells/mm3. Treatment-related ADRs were defined as participant-reported and/or clinically documented ART-related adverse events identified during routine HIV care, including both current and retrospectively reported events. Modified Poisson regression with robust standard errors was used to estimate crude and adjusted risk ratios (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results: Among 1,508 participants with sufficient information for classification, 961 (63.7%) had AHD. Factors independently associated with AHD included age [&ge;]50 years (aRR 1.10, 95% CI 1.01-1.20), underweight nutritional status (aRR 1.17, 95% CI 1.00-1.35), and concomitant medication use (aRR 1.19, 95% CI 1.03-1.37), while DTG-based ART was associated with lower AHD prevalence (aRR 0.78, 95% CI 0.68-0.90). Overall, 569 participants (38.0%) reported at least one ADR. Composite AHD was not independently associated with ADR occurrence (aRR 0.95, 95% CI 0.82-1.11), but baseline CD4 <200 cells/mm3 was associated with increased ADR risk (aRR 1.20, 95% CI 1.02-1.41). Comorbidity (aRR 1.66, 95% CI 1.42-1.93) was the strongest correlate of ADR occurrence. Conclusion: AHD remains highly prevalent among people living with HIV receiving ART in Tanzania. While composite AHD was not independently associated with ADR occurrence, severe immunosuppression, comorbidity burden, and concomitant medication exposure were associated with increased ADR risk. These findings suggest that immunologic severity and broader clinical complexity may be more informative predictors of ART-related toxicity than composite syndromic AHD classification alone. Strengthened early diagnosis, differentiated advanced HIV care, integrated pharmacovigilance strategies, and routine medication risk assessment are needed.

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Food insecurity as a determinant of adolescent mental health in Francophone and Anglophone Africa: A multilevel analysis

Fonta, C. L.; Elgar, F.; Gordon, D.; Toumpakari, Z.

2026-05-25 public and global health 10.64898/2026.05.19.26353168 medRxiv
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Food insecurity (also called, simply, FI) levels in sub-Saharan Africa are rising among its growing adolescent population, the world's fastest-growing teenage population. This study examines food insecurity and its role as a social determinant of poor mental health among African adolescents. The study utilised the Gallup World Poll data between 2014 and 2019, including adolescents aged 15 -19 (n=25,368). Poor mental health was measured using five validated responses about negative experiences. We employed a two-level binary logistic regression model to determine the associations between food insecurity and poor mental health. At the individual level, the primary explanatory variable, food insecurity, was measured using the FAO (2015) Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES). The odds of poor mental health exhibited a dose-response relationship with food insecurity severity, with mild (OR=1.70; 95% CI (1.57-1.84), moderate (OR=2.35; 95% CI (2.17-2.54) and severe food insecurity (OR=3.19; 95% CI (2.96-3.54) being associated with poorer mental health. Other assessed covariates showed that residing in a Francophone state increased the odds of poor mental health experiences, whereas positive experiences reduced the chances of poor mental health, as did residing in rural areas. There was no difference in the relationship between mental health and food insecurity across the two colonial origins. Food insecurity remains an important determinant of adolescent mental health in Francophone and Anglophone Africa. Investing in cost-effective agricultural and nutrition-sensitive interventions that boost food production could improve adolescent mental well-being while reducing long-term social and economic burdens on families and health systems in sub-Saharan Africa.

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High Incidence of Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes are Associated with Maternal Age and Infection Status in a Resource-Limited Community

Kituyi, S. N.; Odongo, A. O.; Wachuka, R.; Wambua, S.; Kobia, F.; Gitaka, J.; Kanoi, B. N.

2026-06-01 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.05.29.26354424 medRxiv
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Maternal health during pregnancy is critical for favorable birth outcomes and long-term wellbeing of both mothers and infants. Women in rural, malaria-endemic regions face unique biological and socioeconomic challenges that may increase the risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes (APOs). This study investigated the incidence and determinants of APOs among pregnant women attending antenatal care at Webuye sub-County Hospital in Western Kenya, a rural malaria-endemic setting. We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis utilizing previously collected data of 300 women enrolled during early pregnancy and followed through delivery. Maternal demographic, clinical, and infection-related factors were assessed, and associations with APOs were evaluated using chi-square tests and multivariable logistic regression. Maternal age and gestational age at enrollment were significantly associated with malaria history (P<0.001). Maternal BMI abnormality (124.5/1000 pregnancies), anemia (99.3/1000), fetal or neonatal death (81.3/1000), and preterm birth (43.8/1000) were observed (all P<0.001), suggesting a substantial burden. Younger mothers (<20 years) and older mothers (>35 years) were significantly more likely to develop anemia (P =0.026), and prior malaria infection further increased anemia risk (P =0.02). Abnormal urinalysis findings indicative of urinary tract infection were significantly associated with low birthweight (P =0.031). No significant associations were found between APOs and infant sex, parity, gravidity, or maternal ABO blood type. These findings highlight a substantial burden of APOs in this rural population, exceeding national and global estimates. Strengthening malaria prevention, nutritional support, urinary infection screening, and encouraging early antenatal care attendance are critical to improving maternal and neonatal outcomes. Targeted interventions for adolescent and older mothers, along with enhanced point-of-care diagnostics, may reduce preventable complications in similar resource-limited, malaria-endemic settings.

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A wealth index based on two-component polychoric principal component analysis reduces urban bias and improves socioeconomic classification in low- and middle-income country surveys: a validation study using LSMS surveys

Vidaletti, L. P.; Dos Santos, A. M.; Hellwig, F.; Barros, A. J. D.

2026-06-08 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.01.26354245 medRxiv
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Background: The traditional wealth index, based on principal component analysis (PCA), used in the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS), suffers from urban bias, distorting estimates of health inequality. We compared the traditional index (PEAR1) with an alternative two-component polychoric PCA index (POLY2) using annual expenditure from 12 LSMS surveys as the gold standard to determine which provides more accurate SEP measures for equitable policy targeting. Methods: We compared the traditional wealth index (PEAR1) with a two-component polychoric PCA approach (POLY2) using 12 LSMS (Living Standards Measurement Study) surveys (2015-2022) from 12 African countries. Annual household consumption expenditure was the gold standard. We assessed agreement using weighted Cohen's kappa and validated against education (proportion of households with secondary or higher education) using the concentration index (CIX) and slope index of inequality (SII). Results: The POLY2 index showed higher agreement with expenditure quintiles (average national weighted kappa = 43.3%) than the PEAR1 index (35.1%), with notable improvements in urban (43.5% vs. 27.5%) and rural (35.3% vs. 22.4%) areas. POLY2 also attenuated extreme household distributions observed in PEAR1. Education validation showed that POLY2 produced intermediate inequality gradients between the flatter expenditure-based gradient and the steeper PEAR1-based gradient. Conclusion: The POLY2 wealth index is superior to the traditional index, reducing urban-rural bias and providing more accurate socioeconomic classifications. Its adoption in large-scale surveys such as DHS and MICS is recommended to improve equitable monitoring of health inequalities in low- and middle-income countries.

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Epidemiology of Cervical Precancerous Lesions: Prevalence and Predictors from Pap Smear Screening in Hawassa City Hospitals, Sidama Region, Ethiopia. Institutional-Based Cross-sectional Study

Fisshatsion, A. B.; Zewude, Y. A.; Nisro, A. M.; Abebe, R. F.

2026-06-10 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.09.26355254 medRxiv
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Background: Cervical cancer is the fourth most common cancer in women worldwide and remains a major public health challenge. In Ethiopia, it is the second leading cause of cancer deaths, with around 8,000 new cases and 6,000 deaths each year. Region?specific data on the prevalence and predictors of precancerous lesions remain scarce, yet such information is vital for guiding targeted reproductive health strategies. This study therefore examined the prevalence and predictors of cervical precancerous lesions among women aged 21-60 years undergoing Pap smear screening in public hospitals in Hawassa City, Sidama Region. Methods: An institution-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 241 women attending Pap smear screening at public hospitals in Hawassa City from March to August 2025. Sociodemographic and clinical data were collected via interviews and medical records. Lesions were classified based on the standardized international framework for reporting cervical cytology results from Pap smears per the Bethesda system. Multivariable logistic regression identified predictors p<0.05). Result: Of 241 women screened (mean age 35.3 years), cervical epithelial abnormalities were detected in 52 (prevalence 21.6%). Atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance was the most common abnormality (16.6%). Multivariable analysis showed HIV infection was significantly associated with precancerous lesions (AOR = 3.7, 95% CI: 1.69-8.12, p<0.05), while hormonal contraceptive use was protective (AOR = 0.27, 95% CI: 0.11-0.67, p<0.05). Conclusion: These results underscore the urgent need to strengthen cervical cancer prevention through targeted screening and early intervention. Integrating routine HIV testing with Pap smear programs would be especially valuable. Health authorities should expand accessible screening for women aged 21-60, with particular attention to those living with HIV, to help reduce the burden of precancerous lesions.

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Assessing the Impact of Interventions on Tuberculosis Control: India Based Modelling Framework

Raj, Y. A.; Parthasarathy, R.; Mitra, M. K.; Mehra, S.

2026-05-22 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.05.20.26353466 medRxiv
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Background India accounts for nearly one-fourth of the global tuberculosis (TB) burden. The country's progress towards elimination of TB is hindered by considerable heterogeneity in behavioural, social, and health system determinants, which influence transmission dynamics and care access. Evidence from the recent national TB prevalence survey showed that almost half of individuals with active disease were asymptomatic, underscoring the limitations of symptom -based case finding. Achieving the End TB targets will therefore require strategies that simultaneously address the substantial pool of individuals with undiagnosed, asymptomatic disease and those symptomatic individuals who do not seek care. Methods We developed a transmission model of TB that explicitly incorporates individuals with asymptomatic disease, and those who do not seek care. Model calibration was performed within a Bayesian framework using epidemiological and programmatic data for India. The calibrated model was then used to project the potential impact of intervention on TB incidence and mortality. Results Under the baseline scenario, the estimated TB incidence and mortality rates for 2024 were 180 (163-203) and 24 (18-31) per 100,000 population, respectively. Across all intervention scenarios targeting improved diagnosis, active case finding, nutrition support and their combination the reduction in incidence rate by 2030 ranged from 13% to 60% compared with 2025, while the corresponding decline in mortality rate ranged from 16% to 66%. Conclusion While individual interventions yield measurable reductions in TB incidence and mortality, but greater impact is achieved when implemented in combination reflecting the need for a comprehensive, multi-component response towards TB elimination.

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Modelling Seasonal Trends Of Malaria Incidence In Nasarawa State, Nigeria Using Health Facility Surveillance Data

Iheanacho, G. I.; Ijomah, M. A.; Alabere, D. I.

2026-05-15 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.05.12.26353062 medRxiv
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Malaria transmission in Nigeria is highly seasonal and climate-sensitive, yet routine surveillance and meteorological datasets remain underutilized for predictive modelling at subnational levels. This study modelled seasonal malaria incidence trends in Nasarawa State, Nigeria using routine surveillance and climatic data. A retrospective ecological time-series study was conducted using monthly confirmed malaria incidence data from all 13 Local Government Areas of Nasarawa State between 2021 and 2025. Rainfall and temperature were examined as the climatic predictors. Seasonal decomposition and cross-correlation analyses were performed to identify the temporal patterns and lag structures. Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (SARIMAX) models were developed using the Box-Jenkins framework. Model performance was evaluated using the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Malaria incidence showed pronounced seasonal peaks, with the highest transmission occurring during the rainy season. Cross-correlation analysis identified rainfall at a one-month lag and contemporaneous temperature as significant predictors of malaria incidence. The SARIMAX model outperformed the univariate SARIMA model, achieving strong predictive accuracy (MAPE = 8.7%). Forecast projections indicate sustained transmission with a peak incidence expected between June and August 2026. Malaria transmission in Nasarawa follows a predictable seasonal pattern that is influenced by climatic variability. Incorporating rainfall and temperature into SARIMAX models improves the forecasting performance and provides evidence supporting climate-informed malaria surveillance and preparedness in endemic settings.

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Prevalence of Microvascular Complications of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Associated Risk Factors at Masaka Regional Referral Hospital: A Cross-Sectional Study

Mukalazi, A. M.; Saidat, D. K.

2026-05-18 public and global health 10.64898/2026.05.14.26353166 medRxiv
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ABSTRACT Background: Microvascular complications are common in patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) and contribute to significant morbidity, especially in resource-limited settings. Limited literature exists on the prevalence and associated risk factors of microvascular complications in developing countries, including Uganda. Objective: This study sought to determine the prevalence of microvascular complications and explore socioeconomic and health clinical factors associated with them among patients attending the diabetic clinic at Masaka Regional Referral Hospital. Methods: A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted among 244 systematically selected patients with T2DM. Data were collected using structured questionnaires and clinical records and analysed using SPSS version 25.0. Pearson's Chi-square tests were used to assess associations between study variables and microvascular complications. Results: The overall prevalence of microvascular complications was 41.0% (n=100). Males comprised 51.6% of respondents. The most prevalent individual complication was cognitive impairment (55.3%), followed by neuropathy and retinopathy (13.2%). All socioeconomic factors examined, including frequency of healthcare visits, physical activity, dietary habits, smoking and alcohol consumption, were significantly associated with microvascular complications (p=0.000). All health clinical factors examined, including duration of T2DM, primary treatment, blood sugar monitoring frequency, HbA1c testing, and hypertension diagnosis, were also significantly associated with microvascular complications (p=0.000). Conclusion: Microvascular complications affect a substantial proportion of T2DM patients at Masaka Regional Referral Hospital. Poor glycemic control, longer disease duration, and high neighbourhood deprivation were the dominant drivers. Targeted clinical and socioeconomic interventions are urgently needed to reduce this burden. Keywords: microvascular complications, type 2 diabetes mellitus, diabetic nephropathy, diabetic retinopathy, diabetic neuropathy, Uganda, Masaka

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Knowledge, attitudes and practices regarding risk factors for cardiovascular disease among women in an urban slum of Kathmandu, Nepal: A cross-sectional study.

Kasaju, M.; Shrestha, A. P.; Oli, N.; Vaidya, A.

2026-06-08 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.04.26354909 medRxiv
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Introduction: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading cause for death and disability worldwide accounting for 75% of deaths in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) like Nepal. Urbanization and globalization remains the major cause of rise in CVDs among urban poor population along with growth in slum settlements. This study aims to assess the knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) of CVDs and its risk factors among women of one such urban poor community in Nepal. Methodology: This cross-sectional study (n=388) in the Sinamangal-Minbhawan slum area was conducted using semi structured questionnaire based on STEPs survey and HARDIC study among the participants selected through convenient sampling. Descriptive analysis was done using SPSS version 21 and KAP scores were further categorized based on median score to perform multivariate logistic analysis. Additionally, Anthropometric and blood pressure measurements were also recorded and analyzed. Results: The median age (Interquartile range) of participants was 33 years (17) with majority of them being Dalit by ethnicity, housewives, with up to primary level education belonging to upper lower socioeconomic class. More than half (53.3%) of the participants were obese and over 23% were hypertensive. While half of the hypertensive women were aware of their status, only 3% had their blood pressure under control.The median knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) scores were 12, 60 and 10 respectively. The KAP scores were positively associated with socioeconomic status of the participants. Conclusion: The study revealed low knowledge with high prevalence of behavioral risk factors of CVDs along with high prevalence of other metabolic risk factors like high body mass index, high waist hip ratio and hypertension among women of slum area with a positive attitude to prevent CVDs and its risk factors.

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Malaria Risk among Internally Mobile Individuals and Heterogeneous Mobility Patterns in Two Hypoendemic Communities: Implications for Malaria Elimination in the Peruvian Amazon.

Ramirez Saavedra, R.; Acosta, C.; Rodriguez, P.; Cabrera-Sosa, L.; Escalente, A. A.; Vinetz, J. M.; Torres, K.; Gamboa, D.

2026-06-11 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.10.26355294 medRxiv
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Background: Human mobility is increasingly recognized as a key factor influencing malaria transmission dynamics, particularly in low-transmission settings approaching elimination. This study aimed to assess mobility patterns and their association with malaria risk in two hypoendemic communities in the Peruvian Amazon. Method: A longitudinal study was conducted in the communities of Libertad and Urcomirano (Mazan River basin). Monthly population screenings were combined with weekly active and passive case detection. A total of 678 individuals were enrolled. Mobility patterns were assessed through structured questionnaires, and social network analysis was used to characterize travel connections. Log-binomial regression analysis was applied to identify risk factors associated with malaria infection. Result: Internally, mobile individuals in Libertad showed a higher malaria incidence (>32.47 cases per 1,000 person-months) than those in Urcomirano (<10.15 cases per 1,000 person-months). Travel networks were mainly connected to Mazan district and Iquitos city, followed by local streams such as Armas and Arahuana. Mobility was primarily driven by family, administrative and occupational activities. Male sex (PR = 2.15, 95% CI: 1.37 - 3.37) and age [&ge;]15 years (PR = 1.98, 95% CI: 1.24 - 3.19) were significantly associated with malaria infection (p-value < 0.05). Conclusion: Internally mobile populations represent a key high-risk group sustaining malaria transmission in hypoendemic settings. Targeted interventions focusing on mobile individuals should be integrated into malaria elimination strategies in the Peruvian Amazon and similar endemic regions.

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Prevalence and Factors Associated with Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus Nasal Carriage Among People Living with HIV at Kiruddu National Referral Hospital, Kampala, Uganda

Babirye, J. A.; Bwanga, F.; Nakalega, R.; Mawanda, D.; Kugonza, C. D.; Namiiro, S. M.; Nakiganda, M.; Semitala, F.; Byakika-Kibwika, P.

2026-05-27 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.05.26.26354086 medRxiv
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Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus (MRS) infections are a significant public health concern. Anterior nares serve as a major reservoir and source of spread of MRS ssp. People living with HIV (PLWHIV) tend to be at higher risk of colonisation with MRS organisms due to frequent healthcare exposure. We assessed the prevalence of MRS nasal carriage and associated factors among PLWHIV at the HIV clinic of Kiruddu National Referral Hospital, Kampala, Uganda, from May to July 2024. Nasal swabs from 256 PLWHIV were cultured, and microbiological isolation was performed at MBN Clinical Laboratories. Prevalence was calculated as proportions, and logistic regression identified associations with clinical and socio-demographic factors (p < 0.05). Of 256 participants, 163 (63.7%) carried Staphylococcus, with 82 (32%) identified as MRS carriers (8.9% MRSA, 23% MRCoNS). Frequent hospital visits ([&ge;]3) (adjusted incidence risk ratio [A-IRR] = 1.18 x 107, p < 0.001), second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) (A-IRR = 3.82, p = 0.041), and unsuppressed viral load (>1000 copies/mL) (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 11.3, 95% CI: 2.11-60.58, p = 0.005) were significantly associated with MRS carriage. Mask-wearing was protective against MRCoNS (A-IRR = 1.66, 95% CI: 1.06-2.58, p = 0.026). MRS isolates exhibited high resistance to erythromycin (81.7%) and trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (79.3%), but susceptibility to linezolid (93.9%). MRS nasal carriage is prevalent among PLWHIV. Individuals with frequent health care contact and those on second-line ART regimens are more susceptible to MRS colonization, while individuals who wear face masks and those with an undetectable HIV viral load are less susceptible. Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) surveillance within HIV programs, enhanced infection control, ART adherence, and targeted screening for high-risk groups are critical to mitigate colonization.

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A Study To Analyse The Demographics And Injury Pattern Of Dog Bite Cases In Emergency Department Of A Tertiary Care Hospital In Chennai

Vinoth, D.; kumar, A.; jenifer, E.

2026-05-22 public and global health 10.64898/2026.05.20.26353645 medRxiv
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ABSTRACT Background Dog bite injuries are a major yet largely preventable public health concern worldwide. They contribute significantly to morbidity, healthcare burden, and economic costs, particularly in emergency department .The present study aims to analyse the demographics and injury pattern of dog bite cases presenting to the emergency department of a tertiary care hospital in Chennai. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional study with dog bite injured participants attending the Causality from November 2025 to April 2026 data was collected using a structured tool including details on demographics (Age, Gender, Education) injury related characteristics , history of pure bite site of dog bite injury type, WHO bitten criteria and information to management etc. We used here non probability statistical analysis and age specific dog bite cases and independent variables were analysed using SPSS (2.0 version). Result A total of Two hundred sixteen dog bite cases were analysed in the study by period of 6 months The majority of participants were 172 (79.6%) were above 18 years and 44 (20.4) were below 18 year, 130 (60%) from rural areas and 86 (39.8%) from urban areas, 136 (63.0%) of Victims presented within a day of the bite, 61( 28.2) next day and 19 (8.8%) in after one week 66 (30.6) were bitten by own dog and 150(69.4%)were bitten by neighbour / friended dog. 124(57.4) were bitten by stray dog 92(42.6) bitten by pet dog. 117(54.2) were vaccinated dog and 99(45.8%) were not vaccinated .110(50.9) victims were injured by laceration. 26(12.0%) were injured by puncture wound.46(21.3) were injured by abrasion 10(4.6) were injured by avulsion 15(6.9%) were injured by crush injury. 156(72.2%) were had minor wound.45(20.8%) victims had moderate wound and 15(6.9%) victims had severe wound. 112(51.9%) victims were taken antibiotics.104(48%) were not taken antibiotics. 185(85.6%) victims received tetanus toxoid, 31(14.4%) were not received tetanus toxoid. CONCLUSION There is a high burden of dog bite injuries from stray dogs in India. Despite early hospital presentation in many cases gaps in first aid practices and rabies post exposure prophylaxis were evident and highlighting inadequate awareness. Key words Rabies immunoglobulin, Dog bite, WHO criteria, Anti rabies vaccine, stray Dog, wound