IJID Regions

Background Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has become a common metabolic disorder in paediatric age groups and is a major contributor to the burden of health economics. However, there is a lack of comprehensive data on the prevalence of this condition among children. Methods English language literature published from inception until April 2025 was searched from the electronic databases, i.e., PubMed/Medline, Scopus, Embase, and CINAHL. Original data published in any form that reported NAFLD prevalence among children and/or adolescents in India were included. The subgroup analysis of prevalence was done based on the risk category, i.e., average risk group and high risk group (obesity or overweight, metabolic syndrome, etc.). The prevalence estimates were pooled using the random-effects model. Results A total of 11 studies (six in high-risk populations and 5 in the average-risk general population) comprising data from 3512 individuals were found eligible and were included. The overall pooled estimate of NAFLD prevalence among the children and adolescents was 35.4% (95% CI: 19.7% to 52.9%) with very high heterogeneity(I2=99.0%). The pooled prevalence of NAFLD among average/low risk children and adolescents was 10.7% (95%CI: 5.2% to 20.5%) with high heterogeneity across the studies (I2= 96.6%, p=0.001) whereas the pooled prevalence of NAFLD in high risk overweight/obese children and adolescents was found to be 59.7% (95% CI:55.2% to 64.1%) with moderate heterogeneity across the studies (I2=50.90%; H2=2.04; Q (5) = 10.03; p=0.07) Conclusion This systematic review demonstrates that non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) poses a growing health concern among Indian children and adolescents, as 1 out of 3 children/adolescents is suffering from it, with a disproportionately high burden observed in those who are overweight or obese.

Introduction Hepatitis E virus (HEV) in pregnancy is associated with high maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality. The safety and efficacy of the recombinant protein HEV vaccine (HEV239, Hecolin) have been established in non-pregnant adult populations but there is limited information among pregnant women. This trial has two co-primary objectives: 1) to assess pregnancy-related and/or serious safety events among pregnant women between 14 and 34 weeks of gestation receiving two Hecolin doses four weeks apart compared to placebo recipients, and 2) to determine immune non-inferiority of pregnant recipients of two Hecolin doses four weeks apart compared to non-pregnant women. Methods and Analysis This is a multi-site, randomized, observer-blinded, placebo-controlled vaccine safety and immunogenicity trial in pregnant women and non-pregnant women of reproductive age in Karachi, Pakistan. A total of 2,358 healthy women will be enrolled, including 2,208 pregnant women between 14 and 34 weeks of gestation, who will be randomized in a 1:1 ratio (stratified by gestational age, 14-27 and 28-34 weeks) to receive either Hecolin or a normal saline placebo in two doses administered 1 month apart during pregnancy and a third dose administered postpartum, approximately 5 months after the second dose. A third arm of 150 non-pregnant women aged 16-45 years will receive Hecolin on 0, 1, and 6 months. The co-primary outcomes will be (i) the proportion of pregnancy-related AESIs and SAEs in pregnant participants from the first dose until the end of study follow-up, compared with placebo, and (ii) the geometric mean concentration (GMC) of anti-HEV IgG at four weeks after the second dose, comparing pregnant vaccine recipients with non-pregnant vaccine recipients (non-inferiority margin of 0.67 for the GMC ratio). Immunogenicity will be evaluated in a pre-specified subset of 300 participants receiving Hecolin, including 150 pregnant participants and 150 non-pregnant participants. Secondary outcomes will include maternal, neonatal, and infant safety outcomes, as well as immunogenicity according to the number of Hecolin doses received and the trimester of vaccination. Ethics and Dissemination The trial was approved by the National Bioethics Committee (NBC) of Pakistan (Reference number: 4-87/NBC-910), the institutional Ethics Review Committee (ERC) of the Aga Khan University (Reference number: 8298), and the Institutional Review Board (IRB) of the International Vaccine Institute (IVI) (Reference number: 2022-007). All participants will provide written informed consent in accordance with Good Clinical Practice. The results will be submitted to World Health Organization (WHO) Strategic Advisory Group of Experts in Immunization (SAGE), and disseminated through conference presentations, and peer-reviewed publications.

Hydroclimate whiplash, defined as the rapid transition between unusually wet and dry conditions, is expected to intensify under climate change, yet its population health impacts remain largely unknown. Here we quantified the association between hydroclimate whiplash and mortality across the contiguous United States from 2003 to 2023 using monthly county-level mortality records, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index data, and two-stage time-series models. We identified overall and direction-specific dry-to-wet and wet-to-dry whiplash events at seasonal and sub-annual timescales and across 5-, 10-, and 20-year recurrence intervals. More severe whiplash events were associated with higher all-cause mortality risk; 5-, 10-, and 20-year sub-annual overall whiplash events increased mortality risk over five months by 3.4%, 4.5%, and 5.7%, respectively. Elevated risks were observed across cause-specific mortality outcomes, with the strongest association for infectious diseases. We estimated that 103,471 deaths were attributable to overall whiplash during the study period. These findings identify hydroclimate whiplash as an emerging climate-related public health threat and suggest that adaptation strategies focused on single hazards may underestimate the health burden of rapid, sequential hydroclimatic extremes.

Background In adults, cold-attributable mortality exceeds heat-attributable mortality roughly 17-fold. Child-specific evidence has begun to emerge only recently - a nationwide Brazilian case-crossover study located the minimum mortality temperature (MMT) for under-five deaths, and a 56-country survey-based analysis linked monthly temperature anomalies to under-five mortality - but no multi-country, climate-zone-resolved estimate of the childhood respiratory-infection MMT exists, and whether temperature variability is independently associated with childhood respiratory mortality at the global scale is unknown. We quantified both. Methods We combined Global Burden of Disease 2023 mortality estimates, lower respiratory infection (LRI) deaths at ages 0-19 years and asthma deaths at ages 0-24 years, 171 countries, 1990-2023 - with 0.5 deg monthly land temperature and diurnal temperature range (DTR) fields from C-LSAT/C-LDTR (1901-2023). Four exposure dimensions (annual mean, DTR, seasonal amplitude, interannual variability) entered two-way fixed-effects models with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors. A quadratic term in mean temperature located the MMT, with percentile confidence intervals from a 300-replication country-cluster bootstrap. Future-exposure leads, country-level detrending, and permutation tests assessed contemporaneous causality, applied to both the linear coefficients and the quadratic term generating the MMT; national pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV3) coverage and ambient PM2.5 exposure series were added as time-varying mechanistic covariates. Results The childhood LRI MMT was 17.1 C (95% CI 14.7-19.8), the 36th percentile of the annual-temperature distribution; zone estimates were 24.7 C in tropical and 15.8 C in subtropical countries, with weak temperate and no subarctic identification. The quadratic term underpinning the MMT, however, failed both falsification checks - future temperatures reproduced the U-shape and country-level detrending erased it - so these MMT values describe a trend-level geographic pattern of the annual construct rather than a contemporaneous dose-response. Interannual temperature variability was positively associated with LRI (+0.278, 95% CI 0.102-0.454; p = 0.002) and asthma mortality (+0.836, 95% CI 0.447-1.226; p = 2.6 x 10^-5) per 1 C, but future-exposure models returned nearly identical significant coefficients and detrending erased significance, supporting only a trend-level association; adjustment for national PCV3 coverage and PM2.5 exposure left these estimates essentially unchanged. Annual mean temperature was likewise inversely associated with both outcomes at the trend level; DTR and seasonal amplitude showed no independent within-country effects. Conclusions This study provides the first multi-country, climate-zone-resolved geography of the optimal temperature for childhood respiratory survival, spanning 171 countries; because the underlying quadratic association is trend-level, the estimates are directional. The observed variability-mortality associations are trend-level signals rather than contemporaneous causal evidence; daily-scale, child-specific designs are required to determine whether short-term thermal variability affects paediatric respiratory mortality.

Background Childhood respiratory mortality in China has fallen by over 90% in three decades alongside sustained national warming, yet national long-run evidence on temperature and child respiratory mortality is lacking. Methods We linked Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 mortality estimates for China - lower respiratory infections (LRI), ages 0-19, and asthma, ages 0-24, 1990-2021 - with C-LSAT 0.5 deg gridded temperature data (1990-2019), aggregated nationally and to five climate zones. Four annual indicators (mean temperature, diurnal temperature range, seasonal amplitude, interannual variability) entered regressions of log mortality rates with Newey-West standard errors. A bootstrapped (500 resamples) quadratic model probed the minimum mortality temperature (MMT), with PM2.5-adjusted analyses and future-exposure, permutation, and detrended falsification tests. Results LRI deaths fell by 96.3% (330,194 in 1990 to 12,098 in 2021; 95% uncertainty interval 9,669-14,891) and asthma deaths by 94.9% (3,287 to 167), while mean temperature rose 0.364 deg C per decade and diurnal temperature range narrowed 0.092 deg C per decade. Baseline coefficients were large (mean temperature -1.696, SE 0.174; diurnal temperature range +2.408, SE 0.336; seasonal amplitude -0.162, SE 0.082; interannual variability +2.924, SE 1.514, per 1 deg C in log rate), but the future-exposure test failed and detrending nullified every coefficient: the associations are trend-level, and short-cycle causal effects are not identifiable. Nor was the national MMT identifiable - observed temperature support spans only 6.66-8.13 deg C, and the nominal turning point of 35.84 deg C is an extrapolation artifact (quadratic term p = 0.963). Within the observed range, warming and declining mortality moved in the same direction. Conclusions The 96% decline in childhood respiratory mortality cannot be attributed to warming. China sits on the low-temperature side of the optimum, and the marginal direction of future warming requires stronger designs to establish. The falsification framework offers a discipline for climate-health inference in China.

Background: Mortality and hospital admissions due to Severe Acute Respiratory Infection (SARI) peaked between January and August 2025 in Brazil. Methods: The Brazilian Ministry of Health data on hospital admissions and deaths caused by SARI were compiled by age group (<5, 5-14, 15-49, 50-64, 65+ years) and quarter between January 2023 and June 2025. SARI causes were aggregated into SARS-Cov-2, Influenza, Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV), and other viruses (parainfluenza, adenovirus, rhinovirus, bocavirus, metapneumovirus). Multinomial regression was used to impute likely causes of death when these were not laboratory confirmed. Results: In the second quarter of 2025 (2025/2), RSV mortality rate among children <5 years reached 60 per 100,000, which is a 43% increase compared with 2024/2. Mortality rate for the joint impact of parainfluenza, adenovirus, rhinovirus, bocavirus, and metapneumovirus in the same age group doubled from 20 to 40 on the same scale in 2025/2 compared to 2024/2. Over the same period, influenza mortality tripled among the aged, whereas mortality due to other respiratory viruses increased less dramatically, except for SARS-CoV-2, which decreased among the aged from 150 to 25 per 100,000 between 2023/1 and 2025/2. Other age groups remained relatively stable over the period. The variation in hospital admissions largely followed that of mortality. Conclusions: While deaths and hospital admissions caused by SARS-CoV-2 declined rapidly since 2023, mortality rates of other respiratory viruses, mainly influenza and RSV, increased significantly among children <5 years and the aged in 2025/2. Public health policies that facilitate vaccine uptake against these infections should be given high priority.

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major public health challenge globally, with Pakistan ranking among the highest TB burden countries worldwide. Although several novel TB vaccine candidates for adolescents and adults are advancing through late-stage clinical trials, little is known about how these vaccines may be introduced in high-burden settings such as Pakistan. Understanding stakeholder perspectives is crucial for informing early implementation planning and policy development. Methods: We conducted an exploratory qualitative study using semi-structured in-depth interviews with key stakeholders involved in TB control, immunization, clinical care, and health policy in Pakistan. Participants were purposively selected from national and provincial TB programs, Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI), clinical settings, and academia. Interviews were conducted in English or Urdu, audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim, and analyzed using reflexive thematic analysis following the Braun and Clarke framework. A hybrid deductive-inductive coding approach was used. Results: Ten stakeholders participated including one whose interview also served as a pilot test of the interview guide. Participants expressed strong support for the introduction of a new TB vaccine, driven largely by Pakistan's high TB burden and the limitations of current prevention strategies. However, support was based on the availability of strong evidence regarding vaccine safety, effectiveness, and feasibility. Key barriers to vaccine acceptability included low perceived risk of TB, misinformation, stigma, sociocultural influences, and limited public awareness. Stakeholders emphasized community engagement, trusted healthcare providers, and effective communication as critical enablers. Health system challenges included workforce shortages, cold chain limitations, and financing constraints. Household contacts of TB patients were consistently identified as the priority group followed by adolescents and people living with HIV. A phased implementation strategy was broadly preferred followed by gradual integration into existing health services. Conclusion: Stakeholders in Pakistan broadly support new TB vaccines for adolescents and adults. Successful implementation will require addressing sociocultural barriers, strengthening health system capacity, and developing context-specific delivery and prioritization strategies. Early stakeholder engagement and implementation planning are essential for meaningful public health impact in Pakistan.

Seeking a simple vaccine to protect against all cancer-associated human papillomaviruses (HPV), L2 residues 17-36 of both HPV16 and HPV31 displayed on the surface of an Adeno-Associated Virus-Like Particle (AAVLP-HPV) was developed. Here, a phase 1 randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind clinical study has been conducted in 20 male and female subjects at a single dose level (20 ug) without an adjuvant. AAVLP-HPV vaccine administration was safe and well tolerated. Repeat vaccination with AAVLP-HPV elicited L2-specific neutralizing antibodies of modest titer in serum. Antibodies cross-reactive with L2 of diverse HPV types were detected, but responses were weak in most vaccinees. We conclude that while AAVLP-HPV vaccination is well tolerated, an adjuvant is likely needed to consistently elicit durable and broadly neutralizing responses.

Abstract Background: Sub Saharan Africa is experiencing an accelerating epidemiological transition characterized by a growing burden of non-communicable diseases. Although excess body weight is an established risk factor for cardiovascular disease significant variations in hypertension status exist among overweight and obese adults due to individual traits and community environments. This study aimed to identify individual and community level determinants of hypertension among overweight and obese adults in Ethiopia using nationally representative Demographic and Health Survey data. Methods: We analyzed nationally representative data from non pregnant adults aged eighteen years and older with a Body Mass Index of 25 kilograms per meter squared or higher from the two stage cluster sampled 2024-25 Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey across 797 enumeration areas. The primary outcome was hypertension, defined by elevated blood pressure or current antihypertensive medication use. Two level multivariable logistic regression evaluated fixed effect Adjusted Odds Ratios with 95% Confidence Intervals, alongside cluster random effects and model performance using Intra Class Correlation, Median Odds Ratio, Proportional Change in Variance and the Akaike Information Criterion. Results: Among a total weighted sample of three thousand eight hundred forty-two overweight and obese adults across six hundred twelve clusters, the weighted national prevalence of hypertension was 24.8%. In the final multivariable multilevel model, advancing age, male sex, higher educational status and upper wealth index categories were significant individual level risk factors. At the community level, residing in urban clusters and high community level wealth concentration significantly elevated hypertension odds. The null model revealed substantial clustering, which dropped substantially in the final model, demonstrating that contextual factors account for much of the cluster variations. Conclusions: Both individual metabolic and demographic drivers alongside community level economic and urban environments influence hypertension risk among overweight and obese Ethiopian adults. Cardiovascular health strategies should combine clinical targeted screening with urban structural modifications that facilitate active living environments.

Background. The clinical course of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and the ability to anticipate which patients will require intensive care, were poorly characterized in Central Asia during the first pandemic wave. We aimed to describe the clinical features of hospitalized COVID-19 patients at the Tashkent State Medical University, Uzbekistan, and to identify risk factors for intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Methods. In this single-centre cross-sectional study, we reviewed the records of 2500 consecutive patients hospitalized between 11 April and 8 August 2020. Patients were grouped as asymptomatic or symptomatic, and symptomatic patients were compared by ICU versus non-ICU status. Groups were compared with chi-square or Fisher's exact and Mann-Whitney U tests. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression identified risk factors for ICU admission. Results. Of 2500 patients (median age 36 years; 60.9% male), 989 (39.6%) were asymptomatic and 1511 (60.4%) symptomatic. In total, 129 (5.2%) were admitted to the ICU and 38 (1.5%) died. ICU patients were older (median 56 vs 40.5 years) and more often had bilateral pneumonia, oxygen desaturation and cardiometabolic comorbidity. In the multivariable model (AUC 0.82), the independent predictors of ICU admission were ischemic heart disease (aOR 4.20), shortness of breath (aOR 3.22), hypertensive heart disease (aOR 2.93) and male sex (aOR 2.00). Conclusions. Older age, cardiometabolic comorbidity and respiratory compromise identified patients at high ICU risk. As one of the first clinical COVID-19 descriptions from Uzbekistan, these data provide a baseline for preparedness in Central Asia.

Background Waterlogging, a form of chronic, stagnant flooding, is increasing in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta in Bangladesh due to the compounding effects of land-use change, including the expansion of brackish shrimp farming, poor water management, and changing rainfall regimes. Its effects are negatively impacting livelihoods and health; its association with mental wellbeing is less known. Methods We hypothesised that 1-recent waterlogging, 2-social disadvantage (women, older individuals, the poorest, the least educated, those with chronic illness, and religious minorities) would be associated with lower wellbeing, and 3-chronic illness would modify the association between waterlogging and mental wellbeing. 1260 respondents from 595 households in Tala upazila, southwest Bangladesh, were interviewed about their mental wellbeing, chronic illness, and exposure to waterlogging in the 12 months prior to data collection, in August and September 2022. Associations between WHO-5 wellbeing scores and waterlogging and covariates were assessed using multi-level linear mixed-effects models with household random effects and cluster fixed effects. Results Our results confirm our hypotheses: wellbeing was lower among disadvantaged groups and chronic health vulnerability modifies the association between waterlogging and wellbeing: waterlogging exposure was associated with 18.31-point lower WHO-5 scores among individuals with chronic illness (95% CI -26.45 to -10.17), an association markedly attenuated among those without chronic illness (interaction {beta}=14.21, 95% CI 5.48 to 22.95, p=0.001). Conclusion These results suggest that chronic illness may increase vulnerability to the mental health burden associated with waterlogging. As waterlogging is increasing, policies addressing both its environmental drivers and the needs of vulnerable populations should be considered.

Background Rural-urban disparities in SARS-CoV-2 infection epidemiology remain poorly quantified and understood in Zambia despite differences in healthcare access, services and preventive interventions. This study examined the geographical distribution and associated factors of SARS-CoV-2 cases across selected rural and urban districts of Zambia. Methods A convergent mixed-methods study comprised of quantitative survey and qualitative interviews was conducted in; Ndola (Urban), Kafue (Peri-urban) and Lufwanyama (Rural). The proximate determinant framework guided variable selection and interpretation. Quantitative combined (Hospital-surveillance data with community survey), while qualitative included In-depth interviews. Participants were sampled using multistage sampling technique. Quantitative data were analysed using STATA version 17, while qualitative data were analysed thematically. Findings were integrated through triangulation. Results A total of 528 participants were included, with a median age 31 years (15-71). Overall SARS-CoV-2 positivity was 12.6%, varying across rural (16.5%), peri-urban (14.9%), and urban (9.9%) settings, though residence was not associated with infection (P<0.132). Participants aged [&ge;]49 years had significantly higher odds of infection (aOR=8.78; 95% CI:1.15-66.99), whereas secondary education (aOR=0.37; 95% CI:0.16-0.86) and hospital-based testing (aOR=0.37; 95% CI:0.15-0.92) were associated with lower odds of infection. Vaccine uptake was highest in urban areas but was not independently associated with infection. Qualitative findings revealed marked rural-urban differences in perceived susceptibility, testing access, vaccine decision-making, and adherence to preventive measures, explaining several quantitative observations. Conclusion SARS-CoV-2 infection across rural and urban settings in Zambia was influenced by demographic, behavioral, and health-system factors rather than geographic residence alone. These findings highlight the need for context-specific prevention strategies, equitable access to testing, strengthened community surveillance, and targeted risk communication to improve preparedness and response for future respiratory disease outbreaks.

Background: Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) remains a major neglected tropical disease in Afghanistan; however, recent nationwide evidence on its geographical and temporal distribution is limited. This study assessed the reported burden, spatial distribution and seasonal variation of cutaneous leishmaniasis across Afghanistan during 2024. Methods: A nationwide retrospective ecological study was conducted using aggregated routine surveillance data obtained from the National Malaria and Other Vector-Borne Diseases Program. All cases reported from government health facilities across Afghanistans 34 provinces between 1 January and 31 December 2024 were included. Reported incidence rates were calculated per 10,000 population using national and subnational population estimates. Cases were analyzed by surveillance classification, province, city, rural district, month, and season. Results: A total of 87,245 cases were reported during 2024, corresponding to an overall incidence of 25.1/10,000 population. Anthroponotic and zoonotic CL accounted for 80,202 (91.9%) and 7,043 (8.1%) cases, respectively. Jowzjan recorded the highest provincial incidence (105.0/10,000), while Kabul and Herat contributed the largest absolute numbers of cases. Shiberghan had the highest urban incidence, whereas Panjwai, Ghoryan and Hazrat-e-Sultan recorded exceptionally high rural rates. May had the highest monthly burden, while August had the lowest. Autumn accounted for the largest seasonal proportion (27.92%), whereas summer had the lowest burden (16.98%). Considerable incompleteness in district-level reporting was observed. Conclusion: CL constituted a substantial but highly concentrated public health burden in Afghanistan during 2024. Strengthened surveillance, improved diagnostic confirmation and geographically targeted case-management and vector-control interventions are particularly needed in identified high-burden provinces, cities and rural districts.

Background: Low birth weight remains a primary driver of neonatal and infant mortality in Ethiopia. Machine learning models can assist early risk identification, yet clinical adoption is often limited by black box algorithms and late pregnancy predictor variables. This study aimed to develop and validate interpretable machine learning models using early pregnancy and sociodemographic features from a national survey dataset. Methods: Secondary data from the nationwide Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey were analyzed. Predictors were restricted to features accessible during early antenatal visits. Six machine learning algorithms were trained and evaluated on an independent holdout test set: Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Support Vector Machine, Gradient Boosting, Random Forest and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). Imbalance was addressed using synthetic oversampling on the training set. Model explainability was established through Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). Results: Out of 12876 births, 4249 (33%) were categorized as low birth weight / small birth size. XGBoost achieved superior predictive performance with an AUC-ROC of 0.947 (95% CI: 0.910-0.938) on the test set, outperforming standard logistic regression (0.8088). Key global predictive drivers identified by SHAP values included maternal anemia status, short inter pregnancy interval (< 18 months), low maternal BMI (< 18.5 kg/m^2), rural residence, lowest household wealth quintile and delayed or non-attendance of first trimester antenatal care. Conclusion: Machine learning models trained on early pregnancy and demographic features can accurately predict low birth weight risk in Ethiopia. Integrating interpretable frameworks into primary healthcare decision support tools provides a viable strategy for early risk stratification and targeted interventions in resource-limited settings.

Background Cardiovascular disease remains the leading cause of death worldwide, yet progress in reducing its burden has not been shared equally across regions. Sub-Saharan Africa has previously been identified as the only world region where age-standardized cardiovascular mortality failed to decline, but long-term, disease-specific trends in Western Sub-Saharan Africa (WSSA) remain poorly characterized. Methods We conducted an ecological trend analysis using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 data to evaluate age-standardized mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for stroke and ischemic heart disease (IHD) in WSSA and globally from 1990 to 2023. Linear and segmented regression assessed long-term trends and breakpoints, risk factor attribution examined six major cardiovascular risk factors, and Pearson correlation evaluated associations between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and mortality. Results Global stroke and IHD mortality declined by 51.7% and 38.2%, respectively, between 1990 and 2023. In WSSA, stroke mortality declined by only 21.8%, while IHD mortality increased by 3.3%. Segmented regression identified a breakpoint in IHD mortality around 2007, after which the trend reversed from declining to increasing. High systolic blood pressure was the leading attributable risk factor for both diseases, while obesity, ambient air pollution, and elevated fasting glucose showed the largest relative increases. SDI rose 69.5% in WSSA but correlated strongly only with stroke mortality (r = 0.87), not IHD (r = 0.21). Conclusions WSSA is falling behind global cardiovascular progress, with IHD mortality reversing course despite substantial socioeconomic development. Targeted investment in hypertension control, cardiometabolic risk reduction, and cardiovascular care capacity is urgently needed to prevent this divergence from deepening.

Nutritional status and immune function have a significant impact on the prognosis of patients undergoing maintenance hemodialysis (MHD). Previous studies have shown that the Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI) and the Prognostic Nutritional Index (PNI) at the initiation of dialysis can be used to assess the prognosis of MHD. However, as the physical status of patients are usually unstable in the early stage of dialysis, we hypothesized that the nutritional status and immune function after a certain period of stable dialysis might be more closely related to the prognosis. This study conducted a retrospective analysis of patients who started MHD between January 1, 2019 and December 31, 2021. A total of 200 patients were included, with 66 patients succumbing during follow-up. Both initial PNI and initial GNRI exhibited a negative correlation with all-cause mortality (p=0.019 and p=0.046, respectively). After three months of MHD, both PNI and GNRI increased in most patients; however, only the PNI measured after three months was significantly associated with prognosis and higher PNI was associated with a better prognosis (p<0.001). Multivariate Cox regression analyses indicated that only PNI after three months of MHD was linked to prognosis (p=0.004). Kaplan-Meier curves demonstrated patients experiencing a decrease in PNI following three months of MHD had poorer prognoses compared to those whose PNI increased (p=0.004). Furthermore, the predictive value of PNI after three months of MHD was evident in both younger (<60 years old; p=0.024) and older (>60 years old; p=0.022) patient groups. Both the PNI and GNRI showed a downward trend before death, but only PNI had a significant decline (p=0.03, compared with PNI after three months of MHD). In conclusion, for patients undergoing MHD, the correlation between PNI and prognosis is closer than that of GNRI, and the PNI after three months of MHD is a statistically significant but moderate predictor of long-term outcomes.

Background: Seasonal influenza, commonly known as flu, is an acute respiratory, highly contagious illness caused by influenza viruses. A clear understanding of influenza seasonality is crucial for guiding prevention and treatment strategies, including decisions on vaccination timing to prevent outbreaks. While well documented in temperate regions, data on influenza epidemiology in tropical areas, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, remain limited. We described the types, subtypes and positivity rate of seasonal influenza in Uganda during 2019-2023. Methods: We abstracted data from the National Influenza database on positive seasonal influenza cases confirmed by Polymerase Chain Reaction. The cases were disaggregated by age group, sex, region, month and year of reporting. Using Microsoft excel, we calculated the influenza positivity rate and disaggregated it by strain, sex, age, region and time. Test positivity rate was computed as the number of positive cases as a percentage of the total samples tested. Results: Among 17,957 individuals tested, the overall positivity rate for seasonal influenza was 5% (936 cases). Positivity was higher among males compared to females (7% vs. 4%), with children aged 5-9 years having the highest positivity rate (16%), while individuals aged 50-54 years had the lowest (1%). The median positivity rate was 4%, with a range of 1-16%. Regionally, the central region reported a positivity rate of 5%, with rates across all regions ranging from 5% to 8%. Over time, there was a gradual decline in positivity rates, decreasing from 16.5% in 2019 to 5.3% in 2023. Seasonal influenza exhibited bimodal peaks, with the primary peak occurring between March and May and a secondary peak from October to December. Influenza A was the predominant strain, accounting for 70% of seasonal influenza cases (669/936). Among the Influenza A subtypes, H3N2 was most common, representing 63% of cases (425/669). Conclusions: The declining seasonal influenza positivity rates from 2019 to 2023 and the predominance of Influenza A and H3N2 highlight the need for sustained surveillance in Uganda. Given Influenza A's high genetic variability and potential for novel strain emergence, monitoring circulating strains, informing vaccine development, and implementing targeted interventions for high-risk groups and regions are critical to controlling and preventing outbreaks.

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a critical public health challenge in Pakistan. The SPOT-TB trial evaluated MATCH-AI; an AI tool designed to geographically target active case finding (ACF) by identifying sites for screening TB. Qualitative study was conducted to examine field team and stakeholder experiences to understand the human, organizational, and contextual factors effecting implementation. Methods: Five sub-recipients (SRs) were randomly selected; two districts per SR based on certain selection criteria. Thematic analysis was conducted on thirty In-Depth Interviews (IDIs) and two Focus Group Discussions (FGDs), guided by the Socio-Technical Systems (STS) framework. Findings: Themes included (1) MATCH-AI as a useful tool, (2) operational and contextual challenges, (3) challenges of the staff, (4) organizational readiness, and (5) stakeholder engagement across hierarchy. The staff valued MATCH-AI for reducing bias and external pressure, and it identified TB cases in previously overlooked areas. Local knowledge of staff was crucial as the AI didnot account for operational barriers and contextual issues in certain areas. Weak infrastructure, and inconsistent stakeholder engagement, the system lacked the readiness needed for a new technology to make optimal impact. Understanding of how MATCH-AI functioned varied across hierarchical levels diminishing the sense of ownership among field staff. Interpretation: MATCH-AI holds genuine potential to systematize TB screening and reduce selection bias. Yet it cannot replace the contextual intelligence of field staff like knowledge of community trust, gender norms, and security realities. Effective implementation demands reliable infrastructure, meaningful stakeholder engagement, and field staff orientation. AI integration succeeds only when technical solutions align with human and organizational readiness.

Background: Empirical surveillance for Aedes-borne arboviruses is inherently reactive, detecting transmission after it has commenced. For small island settings where dengue and chikungunya circulate sporadically, characterising when and where environmental conditions could support local transmission is critical for preparedness. In Mauritius, Aedes albopictus is the sole primary vector for dengue and chikungunya viruses, but previous suitability assessments have relied on Aedes aegypti parameterisation. Methods: We estimated monthly Index P for dengue and chikungunya across 160 localities in Mauritius from January 2014 to October 2024. Index P, a mechanistic transmission suitability measure derived from the Ross-Macdonald framework that climate-dependent transmission potential attributable to one adult female mosquito. Mean temperature and relative humidity were derived from ERA5-Land reanalysis dataset via Google Earth Engine and incorporated within the Mosquito-borne Viral Suitability Estimator (MVSE) framework. Index P was also parameterised with Ae. albopictus-specific biological priors and virus-specific vector competence values for both dengue and chikungunya. Results: Transmission suitability for both viruses was concentrated within the austral summer (November to April), with near-zero values in winter, below the indicative transmission threshold (Index P [&ge;] 0.5). Chikungunya exhibited consistently higher, more spatially widespread and longer-lasting suitability than dengue: all districts exceeded the transmission suitability threshold for chikungunya (Index P = 0.71), while median dengue Index P = 0.24, remaining below this threshold, during the same study period. Dengue peak suitability was concentrated in western coastal localities, consistent with the greater thermal sensitivity of its extrinsic incubation period in Ae. albopictus. Conclusions: These findings indicate that dengue and chikungunya have distinct, virus-specific climate-suitability profiles in Mauritius, and should not be treated as interchangeable for preparedness purposes. This provides an important Ae. albopictus-parameterised evidence base for Mauritius, enabling seasonal and geographic targeting of surveillance and vector control ahead of, rather than in response to local transmission.

Rabies remains a major zoonotic public health threat, associated with approximately 59,000 annual deaths globally, with Africa bearing 36% of this burden. In Uganda, an estimated 36 human deaths and 1.8 million dog bite exposures occur annually, yet national dog vaccination coverage remains critically low at approximately 10%. This study investigated factors associated with rabies vaccination uptake among dog owners in Butaleja Town Council, Eastern Uganda, a high-risk setting. A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 173 dog owners between May 18 and June 28, 2024, using semi-structured questionnaires. The primary outcome was vaccination uptake ([&ge;]1 dose in the past year). Modified Poisson regression with robust variance estimated adjusted prevalence ratios for all socio-demographic, veterinary system, health system, dog-related, and knowledge factors. Among 173 dog owners, 57.2% vaccinated at least one dog, corresponding to 54.6% (166/304) of all dogs vaccinated. Factors associated with vaccination uptake included older age (21-40 years: aPR 1.43, 95% CI: 1.15-1.71; 41-60 years: aPR 1.53, 95% CI: 1.22-1.82; [&ge;]61 years: aPR 1.56, 95% CI: 1.33-2.23), higher education (primary: aPR 1.20, 95% CI: 1.00-1.45; secondary: aPR 1.55, 95% CI: 1.20-2.00), higher income, access to veterinary clinics (aPR 2.50, 95% CI: 1.52-3.75), and participation in community education sessions (aPR 1.71, 95% CI: 1.34-2.15). While household-level uptake showed moderate engagement, the resulting dog population vaccination coverage of 48.4% remained substantially below the 70% World Health Organization threshold required for herd immunity. Achieving the "Zero by 30" elimination dog-bite mediated Rabies target in this setting requires targeted interventions addressing the identified associated factors including; enhanced community education, improved veterinary service accessibility, reminder systems, and strategies to convert partial household vaccination into complete coverage particularly among younger, less educated, and lower-income dog owners.